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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."